SILVER TSUNAMI
TL;DR
I’m Brian Burch, marketing exec with 15 years serving US SMB at HP, Symantec, AWS and Insight.
In Issue 005, I shared my belief that cohorts born of crisis drive the market opportunity in SMB and compared The Accidental Entrepreneurs, The Airborne Entrepreneurs and The Artificial Entrepreneurs. I concluded with my decision to focus on what’s next for The Accidental and Artificial Entrepreneurs.
In this Issue 006, I will detail how “Boomerpreneurship” changed the US economy and provide empirical evidence that The Silver Tsunami — the business transition where trillions of dollars of enterprise value must find new owners as the Boomers plan their exit — is a fantastic opportunity.
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How Did We Get Here?
The Baby Boomers have been the most influential economic cohort in the history of the United States. They have shaped every major economic inflection point since they began to come of age in the 1960s, and they have become the wealthiest generation to ever live:
My slide. US GDP, 1960–2023; the chevrons track where Boomer spending landed, decade by decade.
Federal Reserve distributional financial accounts, 2025.
Their effect on the SMB market has been just as dramatic. The 2022 Annual Business Survey from US Census was fielded in 2021 and then published in 2023. It reported that 52.3% of business owners with employees were over the age of 55. Almost 23% of these owners were over 65 years old. And that was, again, from data collected five years ago. Holy Undercount!
US Census Bureau, Annual Business Survey, 2021 data year.
15 years ago, I got to thinking, “What will happen when the Baby Boomers retire?” How will that affect SMB?
The timeline that follows is my construct of the “professional journey” of the Baby Boomers who were born from 1946 to 1964 (with thanks to Bob McInroy for helping me build the original). It starts with the entrepreneurial awakening of the 1980s and ends with the AI revolution unfolding today.
I’ve broken down the last 45 years into five distinct eras which I see as “moments of truth” for the Boomerpreneurs who created their own businesses:
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The SMB Cohort · Issue 006 · The Silver Tsunami
The Five Eras of Baby Boomer Entrepreneurship
Born 1946-1964, the Boomer generation built and rebuilt American small business across five defining inflection points — from the entrepreneurial awakening of the 1980s to the agentic-AI era unfolding today.
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The Eighties
1980s · Boomers age 16–34
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Dawn of the Internet
1994 · Boomers age 30–48
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The Great Recession
2007–2011 · Boomers age 43–61
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Pandemic!
2020–2021 · Boomers age 56–74
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Agentic AI
2024– · Boomers age 60–78
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| © Burch Publishing 2026 | Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. News & World Report; ABA Journal; Workera; Section — full citations in Issue 006, The SMB Cohort. |
Click the product button below to download my proprietary PDF, which analyzes the Five Eras of Baby Boomer Entrepreneurship.
Because of the inherent flaws in how the US gathers SMB data (most Census survey projects do not capture the age of the owner) and the long delays in publishing the results of many of their instruments, there’s no reliable way to estimate how many employer companies in America are owned by someone over 65 years old at the present time.
My expert opinion is the answer is A LOT.
In 2023, a nonprofit organization called Project Equity published research that put the number at 2.9 million — the chart below — using the 55-and-over dividing line the US Census uses. Full disclosure: there might also be some inherent bias in this study because Project Equity is dedicated to promoting employee ownership of companies like these.
Project Equity, 2023.
An article earlier this year from Forbes8 put the number at between 2.3 million and 4.5 million.
But either way, it’s a large number representing several trillion dollars of enterprise value. Earlier this year, McKinsey & Company put the number at up to $5 trillion as measured by enterprise value. They estimated the total number of SMB transitions at roughly six million by 2035 with more than one million firms viable for sale9. This comes from an excellent McKinsey report titled “The Great Ownership Transfer: A New Era of Business Stewardship,” February 26, 2026.
Up to $5 trillion in enterprise value is looking for a new home. Nobody has worked out where.
This chart clearly establishes the business sectors where Boomer business value has been developed over the last few decades.10 It tends to be the unglamorous areas where enduring value can be built: manufacturing, distribution and professional services.
McKinsey & Company. Estimated value at stake by industry group, 2026–35.
In addition to the effects of The Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic on business creation and the durability and performance of those businesses (described in detail in Issues 004 and 005), I believe we also have to consider the depressive forces of those two economic crises on the potential exit for many of these owners. When the oldest Boomers were turning 60, The Great Recession hit—not a good time to sell a business for top dollar. When the median-age Boomers were about to turn 65, the COVID-19 pandemic hits—another valuation-deflating event that I believe has delayed the financial reward the Baby Boomer business owners have earned and deserve.
Here’s a bit of anecdotal evidence that supports my theory via Forbes using Small Business Administration data. SBA-backed loans to purchase companies spiked in 2021 (post pandemic) and then hit a record high in 2025 after growing strongly in 2024. The Boomers have begun to head to the exits for a well-deserved retirement, but in Forbes’ own words, “…it hardly amounts to a silver tsunami.” I believe that means the massive wave has yet to hit.
Forbes, using SBA data. Note the headline — Forbes reads the same numbers as evidence against a silver tsunami.
The first four issues of this newsletter were foundational for me. I was looking backwards to share 15 years of SMB service with you while setting the stage for the next 44 issues beginning with last week’s. In addition to the Artificial Entrepreneur, which will be my focus next week, I’ve chosen to provide my in-depth analysis of what I believe is the most critical stage of The Accidental Entrepreneurs who are Baby Boomers.
The Silver Tsunami.
What is The Silver Tsunami? It is not a cohort, nor is it something I named. It is a commonly used term to describe the massive wealth transfer that has begun as Baby Boomer business owners sell their successful companies to someone else.
I believe there is likely to be a significant overlap between the Silver Tsunami and The Accidental Entrepreneur as depicted below:
My estimate. No government or industry source publishes a crosstab of owner age by founding year.
I estimate that 15–25% of companies owned by Baby Boomers who need to plan an eventual exit were started during The Great Recession by Accidental Entrepreneurs. I believe this is their final business chapter. The great transition — handing the reins to someone else properly prepared and resourced to continue their success. Project Equity research claims that fewer than 15% of these companies will be passed on to family members.11 Without a well-planned exit strategy, millions of businesses with tens of millions of employees representing trillions of dollars of enterprise value are at risk.
Let’s help them.
Click the product button below to download my Boomerpreneur Source Data Workbook with Top 50 U.S. Metro Counts.
Did This Strike A Chord? What Do You Like? What’s Missing?
Have you ever conducted primary research on the SMB market with an interesting angle that you are willing to share? Anything from the entire study, if you have the rights, to your observations and conclusions would be valuable to this audience.
Were you a Profit Machine who started a company during The Great Recession? Did you know/do you know any? How did you/they fare?
I’d like to meet you/them and hear your/their story. With your/their permission, I want to share as much real-world experience from those who lived it and I may use anecdotes or case studies in future issues. Introduce us please.
I can deliver a better quality, reader-centric production if you are willing to provide me with real-world examples and logical, empirically supported feedback. Have some data that conflicts with my market assessment? Share it and I’ll respond and learn from you. Disagree with one of my conclusions? Tell me and we will have a civil discussion. Maybe you will convince me and I will share with the group. Leave me feedback by replying to this newsletter or at [email protected].
Sprint to the Finish for One Cohort; Gun Just Signaled the Start for the Other.
My editorial inspiration for this publication centers on the intense interest that I have in weaving the story of the quest for exit value of The Accidental Entrepreneurs with the rise of The Artificial Entrepreneurs. How will they be similar? How will they be different? How many of one cohort will pass the baton to the other?
In the next three Tuesdays, you’ll get:
· Issue 007 – The first issue dedicated to The Artificial Entrepreneur — I will share how different today appears to be when compared with the opening scenes of The Great Recession in 2008 and describe in detail how I am doing analysis to discover AI displacement that’s hitting mid-career and young professionals that no government survey can provide.
· Issue 008 – I will share the paradox that sits at the heart of The Silver Tsunami. This single factor both makes a Boomerpreneur’s business successful while also often making the business unsellable at full value.
· Issue 009 – As I hope I have proved thus far, I’m a data-driven analyst who is very comfortable living on the horizon where imperfect data is the only data available. We will dig into the business applications reported in 2024–2026 to study what the leading edge is telling me about The Artificial Entrepreneurs.
See you next Tuesday.
Know Someone Who Should Read This?
If today’s issue was useful, pay it forward. If you know a marketing leader, PE investor, CEPA, fractional CFO, search fund operator, Boomer business owner or SMB analyst or journalist who’d benefit from being early to this, click the button below to open your default email tool where a proposed subject line and email is already provided. Edit anything you want to word differently and enter one or several emails in the To line to send to others. Every new reader helps me sharpen the work.
Reference Citations
1. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Employment Loss and the 2007-2009 Recession: An Overview.” Monthly Labor Review, April 2011. https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2011/04/art1full.pdf
2. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Worker Displacement 2007-2009,” (USDL-10-1174), Table 5. "White-collar" = management/business/financial, professional and related, sales and related, and office and administrative support. Long-tenured = 3+ years with the employer; total displacement across all tenures was 15.4 million, August 26, 2010. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/disp_08262010.htm
3. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Employment Situation of Veterans — March 2010.” News Release, March 12, 2010. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/vet_03122010.pdf
4. U.S. News & World Report. Best Business Schools employment coverage, 2011–2012. “Employed” column defined as employed before graduation. Archived by Poets & Quants: 2011 - https://poetsandquants.com/2011/03/15/2011-u-s-news-world-report-mba-ranking-of-the-best-business-schools/2/; 2012 - https://poetsandquants.com/2012/03/13/hbs-stanford-tie-for-first-in-u-s-news/2/
5. Weiss, Debra Cassens. “Only 55 Percent of 2011 Law Grads Had Full-Time, Long-Term Legal Jobs, Analysis Shows.” ABA Journal, June 19, 2012. https://www.abajournal.com/news/article/only_55_percent_of_2011_law_grads_had_full-time_long-term_legal_jobs_analys
6. Workera. “Only 13% of Enterprise Employees Possess The Critical Skills To Understand and Work With AI Agents, Workera Report Finds.” PR Newswire, 2026. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/only-13-of-enterprise-employees-possess-the-critical-skills-to-understand-and-work-with-ai-agents-workera-report-finds-302777709.html
7. Section. “Companies Are Deploying Agents. Less Than 10% of Employees Are Equipped to Use Them.” AI Proficiency Report, via BusinessWire, July 7, 2026. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260707482940/en/Companies-are-deploying-agents.-Less-than-10-of-employees-are-equipped-to-use-them.
8. Coleman, Alison. “The Silver Tsunami is Reshaping Small Business: Why Exit Planning Can’t Wait.” Forbes, January 14, 2026. https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisoncoleman/2026/01/14/the-silver-tsunami-is-reshaping-small-business-why-exit-planning-cant-wait/
9. Yearwood, Stewart III and Marks, Noel. “The Great Ownership Transfer: A New Era of Business Stewardship.” McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility, February 26, 2026. https://www.mckinsey.com/institute-for-economic-mobility/our-insights/the-great-ownership-transfer-a-new-era-of-business-stewardship
10. Yearwood, Stewart III and coauthors. “Boomers and the Business Baton.” McKinsey & Company, April 15, 2026. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/charts/boomers-and-the-business-baton
11. Project Equity. “2.3 Million Small Businesses Nationwide Owned by Aging Boomers Preparing To Retire Puts 1 in 6 Employees’ Jobs at Risk.” Project Equity, 2026. https://project-equity.org/press-releases/2-3-million-small-businesses-nationwide-owned-by-aging-boomers-preparing-to-retire-puts-1-in-6-employees-jobs-at-risk-based-on-a-project-equity-study/
End Notes
i. On the ~15–25% overlap estimate — This is an estimate, not a government statistic. No Census, BLS, or SBA dataset crosstabs current owner age against a firm's founding year, so nobody can tell you precisely how many Silver Tsunami businesses were also born in the Great Recession. I built this range from indirect evidence: most Boomer-owned firms predate 2008, against an elevated, unusually durable formation surge across 2007–2011. Fifteen to twenty-five percent is my defensible range — treat it as analysis, not fact.
ii. On the different “how many Boomer-owned businesses” numbers — You'll see more than one across this issue: 2.9 million here, other figures elsewhere, Forbes citing a 2.3–4.5 million range. These aren't errors. They're different studies, different vintages, and different age cutoffs — some use “Boomer” specifically, some use Census's “55 and older,” which pulls in some Gen X owners too. I'd rather show you the range honestly than pick one number and imply more precision than the data supports.
iii. On the Census data's age — The ownership-age figures in this issue come from the 2022 Annual Business Survey, which describes 2021 business conditions and wasn't published until October 2023. By the time you're reading this, that's a five-year-old snapshot. That lag is the whole argument behind what I call The Great Undercount.
iv. On the McKinsey figures — The $5 trillion enterprise-value figure and the industry-by-industry chart come from two different McKinsey publications by the same team, two months apart: The Great Ownership Transfer (February 26, 2026) and the charts feature Boomers and the Business Baton (April 15, 2026). They report different figures calculated from the same underlying estimate. I cite them separately so it is clear this is one body of research reported twice, not two independent confirmations.
v. On “Silver Tsunami” as a term — Worth repeating since I'll use it constantly this year: it's not a cohort, it's an event — the transition itself. The Accidental Entrepreneurs are a separate, narrower cohort defined by when they founded their companies, not by their age. This issue is about where the two overlap.
My Current Plan for Year 1
After the Foundation, the two parallel weekly threads run in alternating fashion, with crossovers.
| Name | Issues | Dates (approx) | Primary Audience Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Foundation | 1–4 | Sept 8 – Sept 29, 2026 | All |
| The Silver Tsunami | ~20 | Oct 13, 2026 – Aug 31, 2027 | Boomerpreneurs + Financial Advisors + B2B Marketers |
| The Artificial Entrepreneur | ~20 | Oct 20, 2026 – Aug 31, 2027 | B2B Marketers + Analysts / Journalists / Podcast Hosts |
| Crossover Issues | 4 | Various | All |
| Full Year | 48 issues | Sept 8, 2026 – Aug 31, 2027 | All five (compounded) |
The SMB Cohort is independent research and commentary. Analysis draws on primary research, public and licensed data sources, and the author’s professional experience and judgment; while rigorously developed, it can be wrong. Nothing published here is investment, financial, legal, tax, or other professional advice, and nothing should be acted on without independent verification from other sources. Brian D. Burch and The SMB Cohort accept no liability for outcomes resulting from reliance on this content.